The global electric bus market is undergoing a phase of rapid and robust growth, with forecasts indicating a future dominated by zero-emission vehicles. Analysts predict that electric buses will exceed 60% of global sales as early as 2030, rising to 83% of sales by 2040. Consequently, the global fleet is estimated to be 86% electric by 2050.
In the industrial landscape, Europe is witnessing a rebalancing of forces: since 2017, the market share of EU manufacturers has dropped from 74% to 54%, while Chinese manufacturers, such as Yutong (which doubled its registrations in 2024), have seen their share climb to 24%. Daimler Buses and the Northern Irish Wrightbus also recorded exceptional increases, exceeding 100% and 83% growth, respectively, in 2024.
Latin America is now at the heart of the transition, with an increase of over 100% in the electric fleet between 2020 and 2023. Cities like Santiago de Chile are set to become world leaders outside of China, aiming to have approximately $4,400$ e-buses by the end of 2025. Other metropolises such as São Paulo and Bogotá have banned the procurement of new diesel buses, driving a significant change of course that is expected to bring over 25,000 e-buses onto Latin American roads by 2030.
The United States is also accelerating, with a 12% surge in zero-emission bus adoption in 2023, totaling over 6,100 vehicles counted. The CTE Director believes that the transit market may be the first major vehicle market to completely switch to zero emissions in the country.
Finally, India is emerging as a market with immense potential, with the government’s NEBP program aiming to introduce 50,000 electric buses by 2030. Despite initial financing challenges, e-bus registrations in 2024 reached 3,616 units, led by Tata Motors, demonstrating that the transition is well underway.
